IvyArcIvyArc
2

Publisher

4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 106

Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Remington Park 29/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 97 · 1m1f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 97 par29/09C1OR 97C6 @ Churchill Downs 20/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 98 · 1m110y Slo 121 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 98 parC6 @ Oaklawn Park 26/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 103 · 1m Fas 122 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 103 par26/12C6OR 103C6 @ Oaklawn Park 15/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 100 · 1m110y Slo 124 · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 100 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 07/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 103 · 1m110y Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 103 par7/03C5OR 103C5 @ Oaklawn Park 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 104 · 1m110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 104 parC2 @ Oaklawn Park 18/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 1m1f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS18/04C2C6 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 110 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 110 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 29/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 1m Fm 11629/08C?projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Kentucky Downs?8th8th0
2026-06-28Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2026-04-18Oaklawn Park?4th0th+4
2026-03-28Oaklawn Park?1st0th+1
2026-03-07Oaklawn Park?1st0th+1
2026-02-15Oaklawn Park?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0915/0218/0429/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength67%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/09/20254th9/276%50%-0.26
20/11/20252nd1/195%83%-0.11
26/12/20252nd4/596%83%-0.12
15/02/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
07/03/20261st4/797%100%+0.03
28/03/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
18/04/20264th12/137%40%+0.03
28/06/20264th11/486%50%-0.36
29/08/20268th20/10%0%0.00