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7

So Sandy

4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 103

Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/5

Win Prob

65%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength3%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 12/08/2024 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 7f Fas 11912/08C6C6 @ Churchill Downs 14/09/2024 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 72 · 1m110y Fas 119 · below its mark14/09/2024 · OR 72 parC6 @ Fair Grounds 24/11/2024 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m110y Fas 120 · below its mark24/11/2024 · OR 73 par24/11C6OR 73C6 @ Fair Grounds 20/01/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 79 · 1m110y Gd 120 · below its mark20/01/2025 · OR 79 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 82 · 1m70y Slo 122 · beat its mark15/05/2025 · OR 82 par15/05C6OR 82C6 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 91 · 1m1f Fas 120 · beat its mark28/06/2025 · OR 91 parBHA96 @ Saratoga 24/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 96 · 1m1f 120 · below its mark24/07/2025 · OR 96 par24/0796OR 96C6 @ Keeneland 24/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 107 · 1m1f 118 · below its mark24/10/2025 · OR 107 parC6 @ Ellis Park 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 105 · 1m Gd 122 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 105 par19/07C6OR 105projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Ellis Park?1st1st0
2025-10-24Keeneland?2nd2nd0
2025-07-24SaratogaBHA962nd7th−4
2025-06-28Churchill Downs?1st1st0
2025-05-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1
2025-01-20Fair Grounds?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0820/0124/0719/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/08/20249th14/126%27%+0.01
14/09/20246th12/137%50%+0.13
24/11/20244th9/276%50%-0.26
20/01/20257th10/147%45%-0.02
15/05/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
28/06/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
24/07/20252nd12/137%80%+0.43
24/10/20252nd11/893%80%-0.13
19/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09