9
Urban Planner
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 20/03/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 9% | -0.17 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 19/07/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |