Woodcourt
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 100
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 04/01/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |