6
Capricorn Belle
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 77
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Yarmouth | 4 | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-09-29 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 29/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 250/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |