Java Tales
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 85
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Penn National | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |