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3

Ridgie

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 72

Delaware Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f110y 12022/09C9C9 @ Presque Isle Downs 09/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 71 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 71 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 20/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 86 · 6f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 86 par20/12C6OR 86C5 @ Tampa Bay Downs 10/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 87 · 7f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/01/2026 · OR 87 parC7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 28/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 91 · 6f110y Fas 122 · below its mark28/01/2026 · OR 91 par28/01C7OR 91C7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 20/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 81 · 7f 120 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 81 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 08/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 78 · 6f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 78 par8/08C5OR 78C6 @ Colonial Downs 27/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 75 · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 75 par27/08C6OR 75projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Colonial Downs?7th6th+1
2026-08-08Colonial Downs?8th6th+2
2026-02-20Tampa Bay Downs?4th4th0
2026-01-28Tampa Bay Downs?4th4th0
2026-01-10Tampa Bay Downs?3rd1st+2
2025-12-20Tampa Bay Downs?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0910/018/0827/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength43%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/20252nd11/486%80%-0.06
09/10/20251st8/1397%100%+0.03
20/12/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
10/01/20263rd9/153%60%+0.07
28/01/20264th11/1094%25%-0.69
20/02/20264th5/174%57%-0.17
08/08/20268th33/10%13%+0.13
27/08/20267th33/10%14%+0.14