Collection Day
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 91
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |