2
Hope's Alive
4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 93
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength83%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Penn National | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-04-24 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-03-19 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-11-14 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 10/09/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/11/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |