5
Lake Chapala
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 81
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |