Run Happy Pappy
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 86
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 31/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 19/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |