Backside Buzz

6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 98

Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.1

Today:

Class gap: +1.4

Higher-class runs: 6

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-26	Penn National	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2026-07-31	Penn National	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2025-10-30	Penn National	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2025-09-05	Penn National	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2025-08-14	Penn National	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2025-07-16	Delaware Park	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength53%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/10/2024	1st	13/2	66%	100%	+0.34
15/11/2024	6th	13/2	66%	29%	-0.37
19/01/2025	3rd	7/2	82%	60%	-0.22
16/07/2025	5th	5/1	74%	20%	-0.54
14/08/2025	4th	5/1	74%	50%	-0.24
05/09/2025	2nd	13/2	66%	83%	+0.18
30/10/2025	5th	9/2	76%	33%	-0.43
31/07/2026	2nd	7/4	91%	80%	-0.11
26/08/2026	1st	10/11	95%	100%	+0.05