Bouncer
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 96
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | -1th | +6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 10/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 15/03/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |