4
Paynted Warrior
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 103
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |