12
Christmas Surprise
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 57
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 15/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |