Johnny Bay Goode
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 66
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |