IvyArcIvyArc
1

Overspent

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 88

Delaware Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Delaware Park 15/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 6f 124 · below its mark15/10/2025 · OR 74 par15/10C9OR 74C9 @ Penn National 06/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 125 · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 83 parC9 @ Colonial Downs 14/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 72 · 6f 125 · beat its mark14/03/2026 · OR 72 par14/03C9OR 72C7 @ Laurel Park 26/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 71 · 6f Fas 126 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 71 parC7 @ Delaware Park 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 6f 125 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 75 par21/05C7OR 75C5 @ Colonial Downs 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 83 · 5f110y Sft 122 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 83 parC9 @ Colonial Downs 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 82 par23/07C9OR 82C5 @ Colonial Downs 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 88 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 88 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 89 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 89 par3/09C5OR 89projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Colonial Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-08-07Colonial Downs?4th4th0
2026-07-23Colonial Downs?2nd6th−4
2026-06-28Colonial Downs?4th4th0
2026-05-21Delaware Park?1st3rd−2
2026-04-26Laurel Park?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1026/0423/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/10/20252nd15/890%83%-0.07
06/11/20255th3/184%43%-0.41
14/03/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
26/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
21/05/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
28/06/20264th5/174%63%-0.11
23/07/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
07/08/20264th6/168%57%-0.11
03/09/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11