IvyArcIvyArc
5

Paterno

3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 89

Delaware Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Penn National 03/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 64 · 6f Fas 118 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 64 par3/04C7OR 64C7 @ Penn National 16/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 70 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 70 parC7 @ Penn National 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 76 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 76 par8/05C7OR 76C5 @ Penn National 20/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 76 · 6f 121 · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 76 parC5 @ Penn National 10/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 79 par10/06C5OR 79C7 @ Penn National 24/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Penn National 29/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 88 · 5f 120 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 88 par29/07C5OR 88C8 @ Penn National 20/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 88 · 6f Slo 118 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 88 parC7 @ Delaware Park 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 94 · 5f 119 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 94 par5/09C7OR 94projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Delaware Park?1st3rd−2
2026-08-20Penn National?2nd5th−3
2026-07-29Penn National?3rd3rd0
2026-06-24Penn National?4th6th−2
2026-06-10Penn National?1st1st0
2026-05-20Penn National?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0420/0529/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength69%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/04/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
16/04/20262nd11/893%80%-0.13
08/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
20/05/20264th4/179%25%-0.54
10/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
24/06/20264th9/276%40%-0.36
29/07/20263rd4/179%60%-0.19
20/08/20262nd7/282%67%-0.15
05/09/20261st10/147%100%+0.53