2
Skillian
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 90
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 28/06/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |