Chalk Talk

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 74

Delaware Park · Race 7 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

96%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-14	Delaware Park	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2025-11-08	Laurel Park	?	10th	9th	+1	1.0
2016-04-15	Hawthorne	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2015-12-05	Fair Grounds	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2015-10-13	Indiana Grand Race Course	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/10/2015	1st	1/1	95%	100%	+0.05
05/12/2015	2nd	3/1	84%	83%	-0.01
15/04/2016	5th	6/1	68%	50%	-0.18
08/11/2025	10th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
14/08/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	86%	+0.49