On The Rox

3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 63

Delaware Park · Race 7 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▬

Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-14	Delaware Park	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-06-24	Delaware Park	?	5th	4th	+1	5.6
2026-05-03	Tampa Bay Downs	?	9th	8th	+1	1.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +18.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
03/05/2026	9th	25/1	0%	20%	+0.20
24/06/2026	5th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
14/08/2026	4th	33/1	0%	57%	+0.57