Magic Bay
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 60
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 28/06/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 22/08/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 08/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/03/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |