1
Opportune Notion
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 63
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2024 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 23/07/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 25/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 15/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |