4
Paynted Lion
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 71
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength82%
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |