8
Spirit Girl
3yo Filly · 8-9
Dieppe · Prix De Bondues Claiming Stakes · 1m 208y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
82%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Tarbes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Vichy | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Chateaubriant | 3 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-15 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 2 | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-15 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |