11
Kiwicat
5yo Gelding · 8-11
Dieppe · Prix De Pornichet Handicap · 1m 208y
#9
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 9.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Compiegne | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Strasbourg | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Saint-Cloud | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Machecoul | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 27/12/2025 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 15% | -0.21 |
| 21/01/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.08 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 19/03/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 53% | +0.11 |
| 10/04/2026 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 8% | -0.50 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/05/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.09 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |