3
Maguro
7yo Gelding · 9-2
Dieppe · Prix De Pornichet Handicap · 1m 208y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 3 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Compiegne | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chantilly | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Chantilly | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 57% | +0.52 |
| 13/02/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |
| 23/03/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 14/04/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 53% | -0.05 |
| 04/05/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 47% | -0.14 |
| 19/05/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 16/08/2026 | 15th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |