7
Not So Silly
8yo Gelding · 8-11
Dieppe · Prix De Pornichet Handicap · 1m 208y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
36%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Le Touquet | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Clairefontaine | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/03/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/04/2026 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/07/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 07/08/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 71% | +0.66 |