14
Paddy White Heart
5yo Filly · 8-11
Dieppe · Prix De Pornichet Handicap · 1m 208y
#12
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.4 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Chantilly | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 11/12/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 30/12/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 19/03/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 30/03/2026 | 13th | 80/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/04/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 19/06/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 16/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |