4
Golden Vale
4yo Filly · 9-7
Dieppe · Prix Du Touquet Handicap · 1m 208y
#5
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 6-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2025 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 45% | -0.10 |
| 19/12/2025 | 14th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/04/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 12/05/2026 | 13th | 80/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 25/05/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 02/07/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 7% | -0.30 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 03/08/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |