3
Gran Habano
5yo Colt · 9-13
Dieppe · Prix Du Touquet Handicap · 1m 208y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength45%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength70%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 30% | +0.25 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 11/07/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 58% | +0.43 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |