Joao
9yo Gelding · 8-9
Dieppe · Prix Du Touquet Handicap · 1m 208y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 7.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Vittel | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Compiegne | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 58% | -0.13 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 14/04/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 21% | +0.16 |
| 19/06/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |