10
Massa Chop
7yo Gelding · 8-13
Dieppe · Prix Du Touquet Handicap · 1m 208y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Deauville | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Compiegne | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength29%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/02/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 19/03/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 53% | +0.48 |
| 10/04/2026 | 14th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 20/05/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 06/08/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 27/08/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 62% | +0.46 |