12
The Wheel
4yo Filly · 8-12
Dieppe · Prix Du Touquet Handicap · 1m 208y
#14
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 8.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Angers | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Argentan | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Deauville | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 6-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 03/01/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 09/01/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 09/04/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 02/05/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 14/05/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 21/07/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/09/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |