11
Breathe On
5yo Filly · 8-8
Dieppe · Prix WWW.Croise-Laroche.FR Claiming Stakes · 5f 102y
#9
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Le Touquet | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Dieppe | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Chantilly | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Le Croise-Laroche | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Le Croise-Laroche | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/06/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/08/2025 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/10/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 27/12/2025 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 06/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 23/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 26/07/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |