3
Jess Livermore
5yo Gelding · 8-11
Dieppe · Prix WWW.Croise-Laroche.FR Claiming Stakes · 5f 102y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength40%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Moulins | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-01-30 | Deauville | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 18/12/2025 | 6th | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 09/01/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 77% | -0.07 |
| 30/01/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 73% | -0.13 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 17/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |
| 23/06/2026 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 20/07/2026 | 12th | 15/2 | 61% | 8% | -0.52 |
| 28/08/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |