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2

Koutsounakos

11yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 54

Dieppe · Prix WWW.Croise-Laroche.FR Claiming Stakes · 5f 102y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Chantilly 05/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 54 · 3f214y Sft 120 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 54 par5/09C5OR 54C5 @ Le Croise-Laroche 18/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 54 · 5f102y GS 128 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 54 parC0 @ Salon-De-Provence 30/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 5f102y Sft 13530/09C?3 @ Chantilly 02/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 54 · 4f213y Hvy 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 54 par4 @ Salon-De-Provence 16/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 54 · 5f102y GS 123 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 54 par16/044OR 543 @ Chantilly 28/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 54 · 5f102y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 54 par3 @ ParisLongchamp 28/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 4f213y GS 117 · HIGHER CLASS28/0534 @ Vichy 12/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 4f213y Sft 1323 @ Deauville 01/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 54 · 4f104y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 54 par1/093OR 54projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Deauville31st0th+1
2026-08-12Vichy44th4th0
2026-05-28ParisLongchamp310th9th+1
2026-04-28Chantilly34th3rd+1
2026-04-16Salon-De-Provence47th7th0
2026-04-02Chantilly313th12th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/092/0428/051/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20251st11/142%100%+0.58
18/09/20255th9/488%56%-0.33
30/09/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
02/04/202613th22/10%0%0.00
16/04/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
28/04/20264th50/10%73%+0.73
28/05/202610th16/116%10%-0.06
12/08/20264th14/126%67%+0.40
01/09/20261st17/255%100%+0.45