10
Mrs Holiday
5yo Filly · 8-8
Dieppe · Prix WWW.Croise-Laroche.FR Claiming Stakes · 5f 102y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Le Lion D'angers | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Les Sables | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/05/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 29/05/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 79% | +0.63 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 71% | +0.66 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 20/08/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 21% | -0.26 |
| 10/09/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |