4
Une Peinture
5yo Gelding · 8-11
Dieppe · Prix WWW.Croise-Laroche.FR Claiming Stakes · 5f 102y
#10
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Le Touquet | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 3 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-09-07 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Le Touquet | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength12%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 23% | -0.03 |
| 08/07/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 27/07/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 85% | +0.58 |
| 17/08/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 58% | -0.02 |
| 07/09/2025 | 15th | 18/1 | 5% | 7% | +0.01 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 05/07/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 02/08/2026 | 16th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 16/08/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |