5
Alinka
3yo Filly · 9-3
Dieppe · Prix De Pau Handicap · 1m 208y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Deauville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Compiegne | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 80% | +0.75 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 16/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 23/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 11/09/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |