Pool Guy
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 83
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-03-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-09-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 12th | 9th | +3 |
| 2024-07-27 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2024 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 18/04/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 23/05/2024 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 27/07/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/09/2024 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/03/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 27/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 04/07/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |