3
Bout Tree Fiddy
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 11th | 13th | −2 |
| 2026-07-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 27/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 04/11/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 12/11/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 17/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 05/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |