4
Cow Creek Kid
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2025-11-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-10-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 10/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 01/07/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 30/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 12/11/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 04/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |