5
For Mama
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 79
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-06-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2025-05-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 31/07/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 30/04/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 20/05/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/06/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |
| 07/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |