2
Happiest Moment
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 73
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 13/11/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 29/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |