9
Lookout Kid
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 76
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-11-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 27/05/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 20/08/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 10/09/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 44% | -0.42 |
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 10/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |