6
Machts Nichts
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 73
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-11-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-10-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 23/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 08/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 23/10/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 12/11/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 02/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |