7
Storm Back
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 73
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |