8
Thousands Of Hopes
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 75
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 28/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 06/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 08/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |