7
Tiva
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 55
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 09/07/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |